000 AXNT20 KNHC 260506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 13N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis south of 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave from 04N22W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Outside the convection associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from the Equator to 11N and E of 16W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 29W-41W, and north of the ITCZ to 08N between 47W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. Dry conditions prevail across the basin with anticyclonic flow present. No significant convection is noted across the basin with the exception of a few high debri clouds moving into the southwest Gulf from convection over central Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeast winds across the western Gulf and light and gentle winds near the Big Bend. Seas range between 2-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will dominate most of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. By Wed, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are forecast tonight through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough stretches westward across Panama into the eastern Pacific from a 1009 mb low pressure north of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection accompanies this feature from the N of Colombia coast west across Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean south of 16N between 72W-80W with seas 6 to 9 ft. An area of fresh winds is also noted over the Windward Passage with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail with seas up to 5 ft. In the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By Thu night, winds will become moderate to locally fresh and continue through Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate through Wed. Strong winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving west across the eastern Atlantic. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 31N77W. This is bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds with seas 3 to 4 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N. A weak cold front extends southwest from a 1020 mb low pressure near 31N61W to 28N69W then lifts northwest to 30N73W. Scattered showers are noted 90 nm ahead of the front north of 27N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the southern Bahamas south of 25N. To the east, high pressure also prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by 1028 mb high SE of the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 34W with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 18N near the African coast and east of 30W. Another area of fresh NE winds is south of 15N and west of 30W. The weak cold front is dipping into portions of the western Atlantic with gentle winds behind it. This front will dissipate by Wed. Otherwise, light winds will prevail through Wed across the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds will become gentle to moderate by Thu and through the weekend. By Fri and into Sat, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to come off the southeastern CONUS late Sun. $$ Torres