000 AXNT20 KNHC 250553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts north to northeast gales to strong gales to continue in the Agadir region through at least tonight. ASCAT this evening indicated gale force winds north of 29N to 33W and E of 16W. Wave heights range between 9 to 13 ft. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from the Equator to 08N and East of 21W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted from the Equator to 05N between 26W to 37W and near the coast of Brazil north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough stretches across the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 93W and 95W. A second trough is noted between two areas of high pressure. Streamer showers are seen from the Florida Keys north to the Florida Panhandle E of 87W. Elsewhere, the high pressure ridge northeast of the Gulf is keeping moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin except for light winds in the southwest and northeast Gulf near the high. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will Dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest observations show fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. This related to strong high pressure persisting north of the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted, with 5 to 7 ft. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 11N near the Coast of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica due to the proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough south of the area. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean as well as across the Windward Passage through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected to dominate the central and eastern portions of the basin through the remaining forecast period. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate the region through early Wed evening with fresh to strong winds pulsing at night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning near Agadir. Weak ridging extends east to west along 29N, west of 65W, anchored by 1023 mb high pressure centered near 29N78W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds south of 28N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to moderate winds north of 28N where seas are 3 to 5 ft in open waters. Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 30N51W to 24N60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this trough from 22N to 31N. Broad ridging dominates the Atlantic farther east, anchored by 1032 mb high pressure over the Azores. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted east of the ridge along the coast of northwest Africa, with strong from 26N north to the Canary Islands and up to gale force off Morocco. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 16N and from the Cape Verde Islands E of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of 23N, with gentle to moderate easterly winds north of 23N, and 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, light winds will prevail through Wed across most of the western Atlantic as high pressure extends over the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds is expected to continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through Wed night with gentle to moderate winds prevailing the rest of the week. Toward the end of the week, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front pushing off the southeastern U.S. coast. $$ MTorres