000 AXNT20 KNHC 232104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ana is centered near 37.5N 57.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 470 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The upper shear continues to be strong, and Ana remains an exposed with no significant convection near its center. Ana is expected to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight as it continues to move to the northeast, then dissipate Mon. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 90 nm in the southeast quadrant and 60 nm in the northeast and southwest quadrants, with seas below 12 ft in the northwest quadrant of the storm. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds to gale force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least 24/06 UTC and gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at least 25/12 UTC. Meteo-France is also forecasting winds to gale force for the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are due a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N45W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough is analyzed from off the northwest tip of the Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. The pressure gradient between these troughs and 1024 mb high pressure centered off northeast Florida is supporting generally fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from northwest Cuba across the central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off Texas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere. A few showers are possible over the west central Gulf, ahead of the trough, but otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. No significant smoke or haze is noted as well. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu night. Seas will continue to subside to less than 8 ft by tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola. Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands. Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around the basin, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are ongoing off Colombia to about 15N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale warnings in off Morocco and near the Canary Islands. 1024 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a surface trough reaching from the Mona Passage northward to 27N60W. Divergence aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting scattered showers between these surface troughs, specifically from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW swell related in part to T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters west of 65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described in the Special Features section, this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and west of 35W. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A frontal trough is supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity over the SE waters, including the NE Caribbean. A ridge will dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 23N, gentle to moderate E winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly light and variable winds N of 27N where the ridge axis will prevail. $$ Christensen