000 AXNT20 KNHC 210552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb non-tropical low pressure center is about 515 nm to the ENE of Bermuda. Storm-force winds are in the northern semicircle. The low is expected to move toward the west- southwest during the next 24 hours. It is likely that this low pressure center may become a subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda, later today, on Friday. The low pressure center is expected to move toward the north and northeast, into a more hostile environment, by Saturday night or Sunday. Please, read the High Seas forecasts that are issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center, at: ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php, for more details. Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The forecast from Meteo- France is for gale-force winds to develop in the area of the Canary Islands, starting on 21 May, at 0600 UTC. Strong to near gale-force winds, surrounding this area, will expand on Saturday, in order to cover the area that is to the north of 26N and to the east of 24W. The possibility exists, still, of gale- force winds continuing near the Canary Islands. Expect the sea heights to build to 12 feet to 15 feet offshore Morocco this weekend, and with sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet elsewhere to the north of 22N and to the east of 32W. Please, read the High Seas Warning and the High Seas Forecast, from Meteo-France, at: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W, to 06N20W, and to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 03N35W to 02N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 24W and 54W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 02N to 04N between 02W and 05W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough, and a middle level to upper level disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico, are producing disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms, from 86W westward. The environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development of this feature, before the disturbance moves inland into the northwestern Gulf coastal areas tonight. It is possible that this system may produce heavy rainfall in sections of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information about the rainfall and flooding potential is to be found in weather bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the western Gulf of Mexico through Fri, with strong gusty winds and seas to 10 ft. A strong ridge stretching from the eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night. The pressure gradient will support fresh to strong SE winds and high seas across the Gulf region through Sat. The sea heights will peak around 10 to 11 ft in the north-central Gulf Fri evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the areas that are just offshore northern Haiti, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 24N from Puerto Rico westward to the Yucatan Peninsual and in the Yucatan Channel. Fairer skies cover the Caribbean Sea from 17N southward. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from northern Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere, except for gentle in the NE and SW corners of the basin. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. High pressure, building to the north of the area in the western Atlantic Ocean, will support fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and to the south of Cuba, through Sunday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves through 31N49W, to 23N54W, 21N60W, and 20N71W. A stationary front continues from 20N71W to 21N78W near the coast of Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within 400 nm to the east of the cold front from 24N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are within 180 nm to 360 nm to the northwest and north of the cold front, including from the Mona Passage to SE Cuba. a strong surface ridge that is to the north of this front has been resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds from 20N northward from 70W westward. The sea heights are reaching 9 feet to the east of the Bahamas and to the east of central Florida. The NE to E trade winds are moderate to fresh from 20N southward, and gentle elsewhere. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet from 20N southward, and ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere. A second cold front extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 32N63W, and it continues to 30N62W 28N70W, and 31N76W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate are within 120 nm to 240 nm to the southeast and south of the cold front. A surface ridge passes through 31N31W, to 25N44W, to 16N63W in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The current stationary front, that is along 20N, will dissipate gradually, through Friday night. The pressure gradient, between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary, will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W through late Fri. 6 to 8 ft seas will prevail across the region through Sat. Large NE swell will enter the NE waters on Sat, and spread across the forecast area through Mon. $$ mt/dm