000 AXNT20 KNHC 191731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N40W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from the Equator to 08N between the coast of Liberia west to 29W and Between 33W to 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through the south-central Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida along 22N84W. High pressure centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras extends a surface ridge S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward to the north central Gulf of Mexico. An outflow boundary extends from the northern coast of Louisiana westward to South Texas producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across Texas coastal waters. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to strong winds across much of the Gulf, with strongest winds across the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are 8 to 9 ft and building across this area, as well as through the Straits of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to the Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower across the Bay of Campeche. scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across this area of strongest surface winds from the Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger across the NW Gulf of Mexico over the next day. A strong ridge from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will result in fresh to strong SE winds and high seas across the Gulf region today through Sat. Except peak seas of 10-13 ft on Thu and Fri in the Straits of Florida with 12 ft seas in the central Gulf on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and through the south-central Bahamas and the Florida Straits along about 22N. This is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin, with only moderate to fresh Trade winds presently. A small area of fresh to strong SE winds are occurring across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. In the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered over northern Colombia near 10N73W westward to Nicaragua and the Costa Rica border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany This boundary along the coastal areas of Panama. Most of the low-level moisture is concentrated to the north near the stationary front and in the western Caribbean with scattered showers present. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the central and eastern portion of the basin. High pressure across the NE Atlc extends weakly north of the eastern Caribbean and will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin today. As high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic, trade winds will increase fresh to strong basin wide this evening through Sun night. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters the discussion area through 31N37W to 25N46W. The front then becomes stationary and continues along about 22N68W to 22N84W. A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located offshore of Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE to E winds across the waters east of Florida to 67-70W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from 1078 mb high pressure near 36N20W through 31N28W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of this ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO- FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR. Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area. In the forecast, the stationary front will linger across this area through Thu morning. The front will weaken on Thu as it sinks southward and approaches the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 65W Wed through Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. $$ MTorres