000 AXNT20 KNHC 151642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT pass from Saturday morning shows gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco, north of 30.5N and east of 12W, in the Agadir marine area. The forecast from Meteo-France calls for a continuation of gale force winds in this area through 16/0000 this evening. After that time, winds will subside to about 25 kt. Please refer to the Meteo France High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products, which can be accessed at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N27W to 05N35W to 07N43W. A westward moving surface trough extends from 07N44W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 07W-19W, and from 02S-06N between 38W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 17N93W to 23N98W. CIRA layered precipitable water imagery and GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate abundant moisture over the SW Gulf. As a result, scattered showers are occurring, mainly south of 25.5N and west of 92W. A 1026 mb high pressure centered over western North Carolina is spreading ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail over the basin, with seas of 4-6 ft. High pressure over the Gulf waters will support a continuation of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most areas through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak mid to upper level ridging prevails across the Caribbean, which is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air across the basin, with little to no significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the NW portion of the basin. Seas are 7-9 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern and north-central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin. An Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas tonight through Mon. Trade winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean late Mon through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the far eastern Atlantic near the coast of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for details. West of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N71W. The front is dissipating from 26N71W to Cat Island, Bahamas. At 1500 UTC, a 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed along the front near 30N61W. Scattered showers are near and within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly north of 25.5N and east of 71W. The latest ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate winds on both sides of the front. However, fresh NE winds prevail east of northern Florida, mainly north of 28N and west of 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring to the NW of the low pressure, but these winds are mostly north of 31N. Seas are 6-8 ft east of Florida and 5-7 ft across the remainder of the western Atlantic, to the E and NE of the Bahamas. The front will dissipate west of 65W by Sunday. Winds will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlantic. East of 60W: Surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N29W. An upper- level low spinning near 26N29W is inducing scattered showers from 17N-23N between 24W-33W. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds prevail from the Canary Islands to Morocco, with seas of 9-12 ft. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central subtropical Atlantic north of 20N, with gentle winds. Seas are 6-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades. For the forecast, low pressure will strengthen along the cold front mentioned in the paragraph above Sunday evening near 32N55W, with the cold front extending from the low to 28N64W. The strengthening low north of the area will produce seas of 8-9 ft, mainly north of 30N between 50W-65W, Sunday night into Monday. $$ Hagen