000 AXNT20 KNHC 132323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...Special Features... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/12Z. The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N and west of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 26N92W to 19N96W. A surface trough is also noted ahead of the front near 25N92W to 19N93W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails along and within 100 nm on either sides of the front. Latest ASCAT data depicts fresh northerly winds along the coast of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front off the coast of Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. The front is slowing down, and will reach from Naples, Florida to 25N94W to Veracruz Mexico, stall from the Straits of Florida into the west-central Gulf by Fri night then lift northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will persist over most areas into early next week as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient from a surface ridge along 26N to lower pressure over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate trade winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. High pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Looking ahead, trade winds will increase Tue as high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning near Agadir. A cold front extends west-southwestward from low pressure of 1015 mb near 36N56W southwestward to 28N81W. A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 27N75W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 100 nm north of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair weather conditions span across the entire subtropical Atlantic. The ridge axis extends from a surface high centered near 34N28W. Winds are light to gentle in the vicinity of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds are generally south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft south of 20N. The front will extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early Fri, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sat. The front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, winds will increase west of 70W by late Tue as a trough develops over the southern Bahamas. $$ ERA