000 AXNT20 KNHC 120038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...Special Features... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir from 11/18Z through 13/00Z. The forecast calls for northerly winds Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with gusts and at times very rough seas. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 07N between 16W to 21W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 09N between 20W to 30W and from 02S to 03N between 35W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf, south of a stalled front reaching from the Sabine River to Mobile Bay. A few thunderstorms are evident south of the front off the western Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft are noted over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters tonight producing moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the western half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern half. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast tonight. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the southern Gulf by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds across most of the Caribbean south of 18N, between a relatively strong subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic, and lower pressure farther south in the tropics. The high winds are over the south-central Caribbean, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Surface observations also confirm fresh to strong E winds over the Bay Islands of Honduras as well. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas. A sharp upper trough reaches from above the Windward Passage to the far southwest Caribbean. Ample moisture along with trade wind convergence and divergence aloft east of the upper trough are together supporting a few thunderstorms from off western Panama to southeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, the high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning near Agadir. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N57W to east-central Florida. Recent buoy observations and an earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N west of 65W, with locally strong E winds off the mountainous terrain of the central coast of Hispaniola. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 65W. No significant convection is noted west of 65W. Farther east, the ridge extends across the Atlantic north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of 20N, with gentle to moderate E winds north of 20N, except for fresh to strong NE winds off northwest Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft overall. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters Thu and Fri, reaching the waters S of 27N on Sat. High pressure will follow the front. $$ Christensen