000 AXNT20 KNHC 110544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...Special Features... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early Tue morning. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwest to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 00N35W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is off the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone from 04N to 08N between 09W to 15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 05N between 20W to 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging continues over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters keeping quiescent conditions in place and allowing for E-SE return flow across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh winds are in the southwest Gulf with seas ranging from 5-7 ft while gentle winds are elsewhere with seas 3-5 ft. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf through Tue. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast through Tue night. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is expected to exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning in currently in effect for near the coast of Colombia for frequent gusts to gale force. See the Special Features section for more information. The moderate to strong convection across the north-central Caribbean from the previous discussion has dissipated. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms remain near a surface trough that stretches from the southern Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, S of 12N between the coasts of Colombia and Nicaragua. An ASCAT pass from 0000 UTC revealed fresh to locally strong trade winds over the basin except for waters adjacent to Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 8-12 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. A moisture surge will continue to affect the eastern Caribbean through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough stretches from the South Carolina coast to NE Florida. Ahead of the trough, showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 29N and W of 76W moving eastward. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted in this region. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1028 mb high near 31N42W with light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 20N. Seas generally range 4-6 ft. South of 20N and west of 34W, winds are moderate to fresh with seas ranging from 6-8 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters. The next cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall near 31N on Thu. A low will develop along the front on Fri allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters through late Sat while weakening. High pressure will follow the front. $$ Mora