000 AXNT20 KNHC 110002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...Special Features... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early Tue morning. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Sierra Leon/Guinea border at 09N13W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to 01N38W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04S to 05N between 20W to 40W. Isolated convection is from 01S to 02N between 40W to 46W. Numerous strong convection is along the coast of Liberia approaching the adjacent waters. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the central Gulf of Mexico waters. An area of isolated convection is noted south of Mississippi/Alabama from 28N to 30N between 85W to 89W. Showers near coastal South Texas is making its way to the adjacent waters. Otherwise, quiescent conditions are observed across the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the southwest Gulf with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf through Tue. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast through Tue night. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is expected to exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning in currently in effect for near the coast of Colombia for frequent gusts to gale force. See the Special Features section for more information. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is impacting the north central Caribbean, mostly from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted near Cuba and Jamaica. Farther south, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, S of 13N between 77W and 84W. A partial ASCAT pass from this morning showed fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds are occurring. Seas are 8-11 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. A moisture surge will continue to affect the eastern Caribbean through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough at the tail-end of a frontal boundary extends from 32N50W to 30N56W. Showers are noted along it. In the western Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms are noted along and near the Florida coast, N of 26N and W of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted in this region. Thunderstorms are also moving north of Hispaniola into the Atlantic waters, S of 22N between 65W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed over this area. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N43W with light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas generally range 4-7 ft. For the forecast, a ridge dominates the forecast waters. The next cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall near 31N on Thu. A low will develop along the front on Fri allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters through late Sat while weakening. High pressure will follow the front. $$ AReinhart