000
AXNT20 KNHC 092240
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends 
from 01N25W to 02N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 04W and 08W, within
150 n mi N of the ITCZ, and within 120 n mi of either side of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high 
pressure located between NE Florida and Bermuda. Generally 
moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf 
basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted over the 
western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas are generally 4
to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the NW Gulf. East of
90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers and thunderstorms 
across the Florida Everglades, fair weather continues over the 
entire Gulf today.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and 
lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf through Tue. A 
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each 
evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A 
stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue 
and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. Building high 
pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf 
on Thu and is expected to exit the basin by Fri night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data from late this morning indicated fresh to
locally strong E to NE trades occurring over the south-central 
Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W. 
Generally moderate trades currently prevail elsewhere across the 
basin. A low level trough across the southern Caribbean along 69W
continues to interact with a diffluent pattern aloft to support 
scattered moderate convection S of 15N between 65W and 71W. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3 
to 5 ft elsewhere. 

A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf
of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture associated with
the low level trough will increase the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms across the south central Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near
31N59W and continues to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 n mi of the 
front to the E of 70W. 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 
30N67W producing light to gentle winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly 
moderate winds are noted elsewhere W of 70W. A broad ridge of high
pressure anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N43W 
dominates much of the remainder of the tropical and subtropical 
Atlantic basin, producing moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, and 
mostly gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The only other notable 
features in the area are a surface trough extending from 25N30W to
27N42W producing isolated moderate convection, and a dissipating 
stationary front along 31N between 15W and 25W. Seas are generally
3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft S of 24N. 

The front is extending into the NW Bahamas is expected to 
completely dissipate by tonight. Another cold front will move 
southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall on Thu. A 
low will develop along the front on Fri and continue pushing south
and east through Fri night. 

$$
Stripling