000 AXNT20 KNHC 091721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 01N35W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 n mi N of the ITCZ and within 150 n mi of either side of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high pressure located east of NE Florida. A weakening surface trough is propagating NW over the Bay of Campeche producing locally fresh winds. Generally moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted over the western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the NW Gulf. East of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers near the Florida Keys, fair weather continues over the entire Gulf today. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support fresh to locally strong SE return flow across the NW Gulf today. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data from late this morning indicates fresh to locally strong E to NE trades are occurring over the south- central Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W. Generally moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. A surface trough extends from 17N64W to 10N65W and is interacting with a diffluent pattern aloft to support scattered moderate convection S of 14N between 62W and 70W, and scattered showers within 150 n mi of the trough axis N of 14N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the south- central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture will increase the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near 31N61W and continues to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 n mi of the front. 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N69W producing light to gentle winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly moderate winds are noted elsewhere W of 70W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N44W dominates much of the remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin, producing moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The only other notable features in the area are a surface trough extending from 25N30W to 27N42W producing isolated moderate convection, and a dissipating stationary front along 31N between 15W and 25W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft S of 24N. The dying front is expected to completely dissipate by tonight into Mon morning. Another cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed, and stall on Thu. The front will then move southward across the region as a low develops along the frontal boundary and moves NE. $$ Latto