000 AXNT20 KNHC 090547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits W Africa near 10N14W to 01N28W. The ITCZ extends from 01N28W to 01N40W the mouth of the Amazon River Basin near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 21W-29W, and near the Amazon River between 40W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalled cold front extends from Andros Island, Bahamas across the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers were seen along the boundary between the northern Florida Keys and Andros Island. A 1019 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida extends broad ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across the S central and W Gulf where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to light anticyclonic winds prevail across the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft E of 90W. Expect SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf to increase slightly to fresh tonight through Sun morning, with seas as high as 7 ft off the coast of Texas. Looking ahead, a surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely across much of the Gulf on Sun. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low to mid-level trough moving across the Windward Islands and far southeastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by scattered showers over Cuba the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. To the far east of the Caribbean, a surface trough extending from the 15N59W to 10N61W is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some could produce heavy rain across the Lesser Antilles. Mostly dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin noted from the latest water vapor imagery. A modest pressure gradient across the basin is producing moderate tradewinds N of 16N and fresh to strong trades S of 16N, strongest along the N coast of Colombia with seas ranging from 5 to 7 ft, and 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. In the forecast, the ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Thu night. A surge in moisture will increase the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N62W to 26N68W, then transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas and continues across the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundary. Moderate NE winds are north of the front, over and east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE winds prevail over the Old Bahama Channel. A 1021 mb surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters near NE Florida extends a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of the NW Bahamas, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in the Old Bahama Channel and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 60W. Looking ahead, the stationary front will weaken by Sun as the cold front continues to move across the Atlantic before it dissipates by Mon evening. Another cold front will clip the northern forecast waters on Wed, then stall on Thu before it moves southward across the region. East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad surface ridging is anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure near 31N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to 23N68W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An mid-level low is centered near 27N49W. Mid-level divergence to the SE of the associated troughing of the low is enhancing scattered showers from 15N to 20N between 32W-49W. A surface trough is noted to the northeast extending from 30N28W to 27N42W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N- 20N between 30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the NE Atlantic from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging. Seas across the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft from 22N-30N. $$ MTorres