000 AXNT20 KNHC 081746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of the border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03N21W to 02N30W. The ITCZ extends from 02N30W to 02N40W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure near 25N80W to the coast of Cuba near 23N83W to 22.5N87W. No significant precipitation and moderate wind speeds are associated with the front. Expect the front to stall and continue weakening this afternoon. Isolated showers are over the central and western Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 22N and west of 92W, in association with a weak surface trough. A 1020 mb surface high pressure over southern Georgia extends broad ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico, where the latest ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate E winds. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. The latest surface observations in the western Gulf of Mexico show moderate to fresh SE winds, where seas are 3-5 ft. Expect SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf to increase slightly to fresh, from late this afternoon through Sun morning, with seas as high as 7 ft off the coast of Texas. Looking ahead, a stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level trough situated over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is inducing isolated to scattered showers over portions of the SE Caribbean from Dominica southward and mainly east of Bonaire. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the coast of Panama. Mostly dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere, except for gentle in the lee of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. An overnight altimeter pass from 12 hours ago measured seas near 5 ft over the central Caribbean between 66W-70W. A ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean today. Winds will become fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north. Seas will build to 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean by early Mon. Showers are expected to increase in coverage across the eastern Caribbean today through Mon, in association with a mid-level trough moving westward across the southern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N70W to Eleuthera Island Bahamas near 25N76W, where the front transitions to a stationary front that continues to a weak 1016 mb low pressure offshore the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are within 90 nm either side of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SW winds extending to 240 nm east of the front to the north of 29N. Moderate NE winds are north of the front, over and east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE winds prevail over the Old Bahama Channel. The front will weaken across the region by Sun night into Mon. A 1020 mb surface high pressure over southern Georgia extends broad ridging over the waters to the north of the NW Bahamas, with gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in the Old Bahama Channel and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 60W. Looking ahead, another front will drift south of 30N across NE Florida Tue night into Wed. East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad surface ridging is anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure near 29N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper-level low is centered near 24N52W. Upper-level divergence to the SE of the upper-low is enhancing scattered showers from 16N-24N between 42W-52W. Farther south, an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N between 57W-61.5W, associated with a mid-level trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between 30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the NE Atlantic from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging. Seas across the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft from 22N-30N. $$ Hagen