000
AXNT20 KNHC 081005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 08N12W 
to 06N17W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 01N26W to
00N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N
between 08W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends westward from the Florida Straits to 23N90W.
Gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of the front across the
eastern Gulf. Seas are about 4 ft near the frontal boundary, and
2-4 ft elsewhere across the basin. A surface trough is noted on
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers prevail
across the region. SAB analysis of satellite imagery indicates 
light to medium smoke south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of 
Mexico from agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the cold front will stall and weaken in the SE 
Gulf today. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected in the 
western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky conditions due to 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely across the SW
Gulf for several more days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area in the central Atlantic is
supporting moderate trade winds across most of the region except
moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4 to
6 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2-3 ft in the NW
Caribbean. A small area of scattered showers associated with the
monsoon trough that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean into
the SW Caribbean is south of 11N between 78W and 82W.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will support moderate
to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean today. Winds
will become fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras tonight through Tue night as high pressure builds to the 
north. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge anchored by 1025 mb high pressure near 29N47W in 
the central Atlantic continues across the region. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 31N29W to 26N32W with minimal shower 
activity. A cold front extends into the forecast area through 
31N68W across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the frontal boundary. 
Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds north of 30N on 
either side of the front, and moderate to fresh winds north of 
26N, east of 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the area of stronger winds
associated with the cold front. Farther south, an area of 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N 
between 56W and 61W, and an area of widespread light rain showers 
is east of the Windward Islands from 11N to 18N between 52W and 
62W. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the tropical N 
Atlantic with 6-7 ft seas, while light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft 
seas are across the waters north of 20N, east of the cold front.


For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front is expected to stall
from 31N65W to the central Bahamas later today, then weaken east 
of the Bahamas through Sun. A cold front will move south of 30N 
into the waters east of Florida Tue night and Wed.

$$
Mundell