000 AXNT20 KNHC 072242 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 11N15W to 04N19W to 02N31W. The ITCZ extends from 02N31W to coastal Brazil near 03S42.5W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located east of 16W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 03.5N to 06N between 17W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades near 25N81W to the W Gulf near 25N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the Florida Straits to 27N76W. Winds are light to gentle south of the front and moderate northerlies north of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. Scattered showers exist within 60 nmi of the front and the trough. SAB analysis of satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico from agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico. The portion of the cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of 90W through tonight, while the western portion will dissipate by morning. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely across the SW Gulf for several more days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N45W in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas. The reduced pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica near 09.5N76W to 10N85W. A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Bermuda High west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W to the Florida peninsula at 25N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N76W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 24N and 27N between 74W and 80W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are occurring within 90 nmi of the front and the trough. SW winds north of 29N ahead of the front are fresh to strong, while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also fresh to strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft northeast of the Bahamas, 6-8 ft north of the front and 6 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 50W and 60W. The cold front will move across the Florida Keys this evening and tonight and into the Straits. The northern part of the front will shift eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night. East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1024 mb Bermuda High at 28N45W to 36N13W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to 7 ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring away from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon before relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in response. On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N to 6 to 8 ft. $$ Stripling