000 AXNT20 KNHC 070605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N27W to 00N35W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 00N35W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection extends 260 nm on Either side of the trough E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near the coast of Brazil from 00N to 04S W of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper-level trough continue to support a stationary front that as of 0300 UTC extends from the Big Bend W to 27N90W to 24N95W. Low level precipitable water imagery depict shallow moisture ahead of this front, which is generating scattered showers over the NE gulf. Moderate north to northeast winds are behind the front over the NW basin as well as along the eastern coast of Mexico adjacent waters where seas range between 3 to 5 ft. A prefrontal trough is observed extending from the western Atlantic Across South Florida into the Gulf to near 24N83W. Scattered showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the trough. The eastern part of a stationary front across the northern Gulf will push southward as a cold front to the southeastern Gulf by Fri evening, while the rest of the front dissipates. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely for at least a few more days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The east Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate isolated strong convection over Colombia and northern coast of Panama and Costa Rica. Clear skies and fair weather conditions are elsewhere with ridge building over the basin. Moderate trades are across the central and eastern Caribbean with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft, except for seas up to 7 ft in the adjacent coastal waters of Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds with seas up to 3 ft are in the NW portion of the basin. A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough supports a stationary front across northern Florida and a pre-frontal trough that extends from 29N77W to near 24N83W. Diffluent flow between the base of the upper trough and a broad anticyclone that sits over the NW Caribbean supports scattered showers and tstms within 100 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate southwest winds are ahead of the trough N of 27N to 65W with seas to 4 ft. A surface trough is noted extending from 27N56W to 23N64W and another trough further east near 32N34W to 24N35W. The remainder Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores high which is anchored by a 1022 mb high near 27N51W. Altimeter passes show seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, the stationary front will transition to a cold front and move east of northern Florida overnight, and reach from 31N76W to southern Florida by Fri morning. The northern part of the front will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through Sat night. A weak cold front will move into the far northern waters on Tue. $$ MTorres