000 AXNT20 KNHC 051757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 05 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa near 09N14W to 04N20W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and continues to 01N42W to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 29N91W to 24N98W. Scattered showers are within 60 n mi of the front, and moderate northeasterly winds are noted west of the front. A surface trough extends from 28N92W through a 1010 mb low centered near 21N95W to 18N94W. A weak diurnal surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Neither of these features are producing significant convection. Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf basin, generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate winds. The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf this afternoon. High pressure building in behind it will act to push the eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by early Fri evening. Mooderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows a line of moderate showers, associated with the monsoon trough that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama to northern Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S of 11N. Scattered patches of showers embedded in the trade winds are noted mainly E of 77W. The ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will continue in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras, through tonight. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun as high pressure builds to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic, anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 34N37W, and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4 ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 27N34W, generating scattered showers. The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the front will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along 31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge will shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far NW waters. $$ Latto