000 AXNT20 KNHC 041520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue May 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 04N24W to 03S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to 03S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 02N-08N between 07W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 00N-06N between 17W-29W, and from 01N-07N between 35W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf north of 22N, and in the southwest Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere west of 87W. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted east of 87W. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and 3-6 ft east of 87W. No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue over the central Gulf today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf through Wed night, then move southeastward across the rest of the basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as well as south of 13N between 58W-65W. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through mid-week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are possible in the northwest Caribbean from agricultural fires in Central America. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak low to mid level feature is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 27N-29N between 76W-80W. Surface ridging extends westward from 1026 mb high pressure north of the area near 34N45W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are generally moderate. A weak trough extends from 31N48W to 28N55W with a few showers. Another surface trough extends from 31N28W to 21N33W with scattered showers on either side of the trough. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft north of 27N and west of 60W. West of 65W, a ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move across the waters north of 24N through Sat while gradually weakening. East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. $$ Lewitsky