000 AXNT20 KNHC 041010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N22W to 01N31W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to 01S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located south of 07N from 10W to 26W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N and 06N between 37W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong SE to S winds west of 90W across the central and western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the area. No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds will continue in the central Gulf today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf through Wed night, then move SE across the rest of the basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure north of 30N in the western Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The NE Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Scattered showers are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as well as south of 12N between 58W and 63W. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through mid- week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are possible in the NW Caribbean from agricultural fires in Central America. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging extends westward from 1024 mb high pressure near 33N51W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are generally moderate to fresh, except for fresh E winds just north of Hispaniola. A weak stationary front extends from 31N48W to 30N55W with no significant winds and a few showers. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. West of 65W, the ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move across the waters N of 24N through Sat while gradually weakening. East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally be 3 to 5 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. $$ Mundell