000 AXNT20 KNHC 020606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N16W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 02N29W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in disorganized clusters of precipitation, are from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in south Florida, along 26N/27N, and continuing into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. The front becomes dissipating stationary, from 27N85W, northwestward, to SE Louisiana. The front is stationary in the southern sections of Louisiana, to a warm front in east Texas. An organized frontal boundary is inland in Texas, including a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 30N99W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is vertically stacked on top of the surface low pressure center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Texas and Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 24N to 26N between 96W and 98W in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Mexico. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 90W and 96W. Isolated moderate is from 26N southward from 88W eastward. Numerous strong is from 17N to 20N between 95W and 97W, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Areas of smoke and haze, due to ongoing agricultural fires in parts of Central America and Mexico, still are apparent in satellite imagery, from 15N to 20N between 84W and 97W from the NW Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the visibilities may be reduced in those areas. A weakening frontal boundary in the western Gulf of Mexico will dissipate on Sunday, as it shifts northward and inland. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected to continue in the NW Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday, then shift to the north central Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. It is possible that a few of the storms off the coast of Louisiana may be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week in much of the basin. A weak cold front will sink slowly into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening, and reach SE Louisiana to the W Bay of Campeche on Wednesday night, before stalling and weakening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 250 nm on either side of the line that runs from 21N61N 17N67W 16N72W 16N80W 16N89W. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through the border of Panama and Colombia, beyond southern Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is along the border of Colombia and Venezuela from 09N to 10N between 73W and 74W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, are elsewhere in Colombia. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest concentration of clouds and possible precipitation is from 80W eastward. Six foot sea heights are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A weak high pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic Ocean, W-SW, to the N Bahamas. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday, before increasing to fresh to strong, from Sunday night through Wednesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and lower pressures in Central America. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sunday, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean Sea throughout the coming week. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Honduras, from agricultural fires in Central America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N59W to 28N68W, to 28N73W, and to the coast of SE Florida near 26N/27N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 360 nm to the SE and S of the cold front, and within 180 nm to the N and NW of the cold front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the cold front. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A 1022 mb high pressure center is about 390 nm to the NE of the upper level cyclonic center, near 30N38W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from the 31N59W-to-28N68W cold front eastward. A weakening cold front from 28N65W to 28N73W to near Jupiter in Florida, will drift southward tonight across the waters that are to the E of the Bahamas, and stall along 28N on Sunday morning. The frontal remnants will then drift N and gradually dissipate late on Sunday. S of the front a weak high pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic Ocean, W-SW, into the NW Bahamas, and will persist to the east of the area through Sunday. High pressure will reorganize across the W Atlantic Ocean on Monday and Tuesday, leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 25N and W of 75W, and moderate to fresh tradewinds S of 24N. $$ mt/ah