000 AXNT20 KNHC 012313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on |1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 02N30W to 03N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-05N between 10W-18W, and from 00N-04N between 22W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level low spinning over northern Coahuila, Mexico or the Big Bend region continues to support showers and thunderstorms over the lower Texas Gulf waters, the NW Gulf, and NE Mexico. This convective activity will persist tonight into Sun as the low moves toward the NE over United States. There is a risk of thunderstorms over parts of the central Gulf coast on Sun. Latest satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Gulf, and also indicate the wind shift associated with a weak frontal boundary located along 96W-97W over the west-central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. In addition, a stationary front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted on either side of the front. Similar wind speeds are elsewhere across the Gulf region. Seas are 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf, and 3-5 ft over the western half of the Gulf. Areas of smoke and haze due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and Mexico are still noted on visible satellite imagery, mainly over the SW Gulf. This may occasionally reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary will remain over the western Gulf along 96W-97W tonight, then shift NW and inland as a warm front into early Sun. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin. A weak cold front will sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue evening and reach from SE Louisiana to the W Bay of Campeche Wed night before stalling and weakening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to fresh E-SE winds over the western Caribbean S of 19N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are also noted near the coast of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades across the remainder of the Caribean Sea. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with the exception of 5-7 ft where the strongest winds are. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin moving westward. Some convective activity is developing over the Greater Antilles due to local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting. For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before increasing to fresh to strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico and Central America. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean throughout the coming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, a cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N63W and continues SW along 28N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. A well defined band of clouds with possible showers is associated with the front. Cloudiness ahead of the front is affecting the NW Bahamas where some vicinity showers have been reported. The most recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front just north of 30N and moderate to locally fresh SW winds ahead of the front. This feature will drift southward tonight across the waters E of the Bahamas and stall along 28N by Sun morning. The remnants of the front will then drift N and gradually dissipate through late Sun. S of the front a weak ridge, currently extending from the central Atlantic W-SW into the Bahamas, will persist through Sun. High pressure will reorganize across the western Atlantic Mon and Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 25N and W of 75W, and moderate to fresh trade winds S of 24N. East of 65W, a ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure situated near 30N31W westward to South Florida. Ligh to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis, with genthe to moderate winds along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly N of the ITCZ axis to about 25N and E of 50W. $$ GR