000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W 
to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 03N40W to 02N50W. 
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 
03S-10N between 12W-33W, and 260 nm south between 37W-46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, A cold front extends from the western Atlantic 
to a weak stationary front oriented E to W from 87W to a 1012 mb
low pressure near 27N96W. The stationary front continues south to
near Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough continues from 21N89W SW 
to  18N93W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N 
and west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. Gentle 
winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere, although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible 
along and north of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and 
upper Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-
3 ft over the NE Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the 
southwest Gulf south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires 
over portions of Central America and Mexico. This smoke and 
associated haze may occasionally reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary will remain over the 
western Gulf through today, then move northward as a warm front 
tonight into early Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected near the front over the NW Gulf through early Sun. Areas
of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural 
fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will 
prevail early next week over much of the basin. Looking ahead, a 
weak cold front could reach the Texas coast early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid 
levels over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to 
mid-level ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper 
trough persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona 
Passage to northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress 
showers along and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some 
showers are occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the 
ABC Islands and the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are 
possible in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of 
Honduras due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of 
Central America. This smoke and associated haze may reduce 
visibilities.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the 
high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds 
are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to 
strong  Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the 
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere 
across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across 
most of the Caribbean early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For the waters west of 65W, a cold front enters the waters from 
30N74W to 27N80W near Palm Beach, Florida. A surface trough is 
noted  from the northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A few 
showers are near the front east of 78W. Scatterometer pass shows 
fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front north of 30N 
and moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front. East of 65W, 
a ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward 
to South Florida. A surface trough is noted from 25N54W to 
17N56W. Moderate to fresh E winds are also possible off the N 
coast of Hispaniola, but generally light to gentle breezes 
persist across the subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm 
of the surface ridge axis. East of 65W, a ridge extends from 
1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward to South Florida. The 
subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh to locally 
strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of 
Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally 
fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will move from 29N65W to 28N70W 
to Stuart, Florida this evening. The front will stall and weaken 
early Sun and dissipate late Sun. Fresh winds are expected N of 
the front today. S of the front a weak high pressure ridge 
extends from the central Atlantic W-SW into the Bahamas and will 
persist east of the area through Sun. High pressure will 
reorganize across the W Atlantic Mon and Tue leading to moderate 
to fresh southerly winds W of 75W.

$$
MTorres