000 AXNT20 KNHC 010302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 10W-12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 15W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N86W. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to just south of the high pressure near near 25N86W. A weak trough is evident over the northwest Gulf along roughly 95W from 20N-25N. A front is mostly stationary from Keaton Beach, Florida across the northeast Gulf to near Grand Isle, Louisiana, where it transitions to a slow moving cold front and continues west to Galveston Bay, Texas. A few showers are evident along and south of the cold front off the northern coast of Texas. The front continues inland, where it eventually wraps into weak 1013 mb low pressure centered over far south Texas to just north of Harlingen. Areas of smoke was observed across the southwest Gulf south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may occasionally reduce visibilities. Fresh N winds are possible between the trough along 95W and the northern coast of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are possible off the central coast of Texas south of the front. Fresh to locally strong E winds are possible off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, where the trough is deepening. Mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary will remain over the western Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the front over the NW Gulf through early Sun. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front could reach the Texas coast early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure inland over northern Guatemala and southern Mexico is tight enough to support lingering fresh to strong E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in most areas. A sharp upper trough persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona Passage to northeast Nicaragua. This is suppressing showers over most of the Caribbean, except for a few showers over the eastern and south-central areas, east of the trough axis. Patchy to areas of smoke are possible in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This smoke and associated haze may reduce visibilities. For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 29N45W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are evident north of 28N west of 65W, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E winds are also possible off the coast of Hispaniola, but generally light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere in open waters west of 65W. Farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of Africa, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle E winds are noted north of 20N, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a cold front off the coast of Georgia will extend from 31N70W to Daytona Beach, Florida early Sat, then from 29N65W to 28N70W to Stuart, Florida Sat evening. The front will weaken and dissipate on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east of Florida. $$ Christensen