000 AXNT20 KNHC 301811 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N34W to 00N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03S-06N between 11W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about 360 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W- 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This is producing subsidence and dry air over the eastern and central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure across the northern Gulf coast into central Louisiana. A weak stationary front is analyzed west of the ridge, along the South Texas coast, passing through Corpus Christi and Brownsville. An area of low pressure is noted north of Corpus Christi near 28N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 25N to 29N and W of 90W. Persistent areas of smoke were noted on satellite imagery across much of the western Gulf, west of 90W. This smoke is limiting visibility in some areas, and originates from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico. Platform observations are also showing areas of fog in the northwest and north-central Gulf, with low visibility reported. Moderate to fresh winds are active off the northern and western coast of Yucatan. Light and variable breezes are evident over the far northeast Gulf, close to the high pressure. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere, except within the thunderstorms off the Texas coast, where gusty winds are possible. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal stationary front will remain over the western Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic, across Hispaniola, and into the south-central Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this trough is supporting scattered showers over the southeast Caribbean, mainly along and east of a line from the ABC Islands northeast to St. Kitts, although additional isolated showers are west of that line, to the south of Puerto Rico. Dry, subsident northerly flow aloft is evident elsewhere, between the trough and an upper ridge centered over southern Mexico. This is suppressing any showers or thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin. Scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds from just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras to northern Belize. These winds are likely still occurring. Generally moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere, except up to 5 ft south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are Expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge is analyzed north of 20N, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure near 29N43W. An area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident from 04N-20N between 20W to the Lesser Antilles. But elsewhere this pattern is supporting gentle breezes north of 20N, except for moderate S to SW winds off Florida, and moderate trades south of 20N. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft west of 35W. An upper trough reaches from the north central Atlantic through 30N55W to Haiti. Divergence aloft east of this trough is supporting a few showers within 120 nm to the southeast of this upper trough. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and weaken on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east of Florida. $$ MTorres