000 AXNT20 KNHC 300958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 03N27W to 02N42W to 01S48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 11W-16W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-06N between 24W-35W, and from 00N-08N between 46W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico. This is producing subsidence and dry air over the eastern and central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure west of Tampa Bay west-northwestward across the northern Gulf coast into central Louisiana. A weak stationary front is analyzed west of the ridge, along the Texas coast, passing through Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Scattered moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring within 60 nm of the coast of central and south Texas. Some of the storms are producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Persistent areas of smoke were noted on earlier satellite imagery across much of the western Gulf, west of 90W. This smoke is limiting visibility in some areas, and originates from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico. Platform observations are also showing areas of fog in the northwest and north-central Gulf, with visibility reported to be as low as 1.25 miles in some areas in a combination of fog and smoke. Moderate to fresh winds are active off the northern and western coast of Yucatan. Light and variable breezes are evident over the far northeast Gulf, close to the high pressure. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere, except within the thunderstorms off the Texas coast, where gusty winds are occurring. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will produce thunderstorms near the Texas coast this morning, and again late tonight through Sat. By early Sat, a cold front will extend from northern Florida to the coast of southern Texas and NE Mexico. The front will then move N as a weak warm front later in the weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are likely to continue today over much of the western Gulf of Mexico, reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles in some areas. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic, across Hispaniola, and into the south-central Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this trough is supporting scattered showers over the southeast Caribbean, mainly along and east of a line from Curacao to St. Kitts, although additional isolated showers are west of that line, to the south of Puerto Rico. Dry, subsident northerly flow aloft is evident elsewhere, between the trough and an upper ridge centered over southern Mexico. This is suppressing any showers or thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin, except for localized thunderstorms just south of Haiti. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds from just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras to northern Belize. These winds are likely still occurring. Fresh NE winds were noted earlier in the northern Windward Passage, but generally moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere, except up to 5 ft south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are expected to continue to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge is analyzed north of 20N and west of 35W, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 29N63W. An area of moderate to fresh E winds are evident north of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage. But elsewhere this pattern is supporting gentle breezes north of 20N, except for moderate S to SW winds off Florida, and moderate trades south of 20N. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft west of 35W. An upper trough reaches from the north central Atlantic through 30N55W to Haiti. Divergence aloft east of this trough is supporting a few showers within 120 nm to the southeast of this upper trough. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight into early Sat, then weaken and shift east of 65W on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on Saturday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist over the central Atlantic early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east of Florida. $$ Hagen