000
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W S
of the Equator to 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04S-07N between 18W and 40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean across Florida
to Louisiana. An area of low pressure is analyzed over northern
Mexico, and a 1009 mb low pressure system is over Central Texas.
Scatterometer data shows a large area of fresh to strong SE winds
across the western Gulf. Wave heights range between 6 to 8 ft in 
the western Gulf and 4 to 6 ft east of 90W. No significant deep 
convective is apparent in satellite imagery. A large area of haze
and some smoke is evident in the southwest and west-central Gulf 
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near-coastal 
waters of the SW gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced at 
times due to dense smoke.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building 
seas will continue this morning in the western Gulf. A cold front
moving off the Texas coast tonight will reach from northern 
Florida to the western Bay of Campeche Fri night, then weaken and 
dissipate this weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in 
the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the basin and weak low pressure over 
northern South America is supporting gentle to moderate trade 
winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are 
north of Honduras, where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds 
are noted. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the entire basin, 
except 5-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel.
An area of active convection continues over northern Colombia 
and Venezuela, with widespread shower activity and a few 
embedded thunderstorms also noted extending from northeast of 
Venezuela from the A-B-C Islands across all of the Lesser Antilles
south of the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight as a 
cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through 
Mon. 
 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the southern forecast waters, 
and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 25N, east of 
60W, based on scatterometer data. A weakening stationary front 
extends from north of the area through 32N47W to 25N57W. Scattered
showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A large area of 
showers and few embedded thunderstorms spreads northeast from 
Venezuela, across the Lesser Antilles, into the tropical North 
Atlantic. Further east, a 1014 mb low is centered near 28N17W, 
with a cyclonically curved surface trough trailing away from the 
low, to 21N25W to 24N37W. A second weak low pressure is noted on 
the latest scatterometer to the west near 27N21W. Isolated showers
are evident near the trough axis and north of the Canary Islands.
Seas are 3-5 ft across the northern forecast waters, 5-6 ft in 
the southern forecast waters east of the Bahamas, and 5 to 7 ft 
over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward 
Islands.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front over the central
Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move 
into the northern waters Sat, then weaken and shift east of the 
forecast area on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft 
are expected in the vicinity of the front.

$$
MTorres