000 AXNT20 KNHC 291013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to the equator near 34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 20W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through 30N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, across northern Florida to SE Louisiana. An area of low pressure is analyzed over northern Mexico, and a 1007 mb low pressure system is near the Texas / Oklahoma border. Scatterometer data shows a large area of fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A large area of haze and some smoke is evident in the southwest and west-central Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near-coastal waters of the SW gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced at times due to dense smoke. For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building seas will continue this morning in the western Gulf. A cold front, associated with the low pressure system over northern Texas, will move off the Texas coast tonight, and reach from northern Florida to the western Bay of Campeche Fri night, then weaken and dissipate this weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are likely to continue in the SW Gulf due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the basin and weak low pressure over northern South America is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are north of Honduras, where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are noted. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the entire basin, except 5-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. An area of active convection continues over northern Colombia and Venezuela, with widespread shower activity and a few embedded thunderstorms also noted northeast of Venezuela from the A-B-C Islands across all of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds are expected to persist in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight as a cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the southern forecast waters, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 25N, east of 60W, based on scatterometer data. A weakening stationary front extends from north of the area through 32N50W to north of Puerto Rico near 20N65W. Isolated showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A large area of showers and few embedded thunderstorms spreads northeast from Venezuela, across the Lesser Antilles, into the tropical North Atlantic. Further east, a 1012 mb low is centered near 29N26W, with a cyclonically curved surface trough trailing away from the low, to 30N23W to 26N21W to 21N25W to 22N38W. Isolated showers are evident near the trough axis. Seas are 3-5 ft across the northern forecast waters, 5-6 ft in the southern forecast waters east of the Bahamas, and 5 to 7 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. For the forecast, the stationary front north and northeast of Puerto Rico will dissipate later today. A cold front will move into the northern waters Sat, then weaken and shift east of the forecast area on Sun. Benign marine conditions are expected over most of the forecast waters through Mon. $$ Mundell