000 AXNT20 KNHC 290549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 03N25W to 01N33W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N southward between 03W and 09W, and from 05N southward between 24W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through 30N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, passing through northern Florida, to SE Louisiana, to 19N97W in Mexico just off the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A NE-to-SW oriented stationary front is in central Texas. Precipitation: Numerous moderate to strong is inland, in the NE quadrant of Texas. Fresh to strong SE winds extend from the coastal waters of Texas and Mexico from 21N northward, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet are within 180 nm of the coast of Texas and Mexico from 23N to 29N. Sea heights of 6 feet or greater cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N northward from 90W westward. A large area of haze, and some smoke, continues in the southwestern sections and in the west central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. It is possible that the low level visibility in the near coastal waters of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico may be reduced at times due to the smoke. Fresh to strong southeast winds, and building seas, will continue overnight in the western Gulf of Mexico. A cold front, moving off the Texas coast on Thursday night, will reach from northern Florida to the western Bay of Campeche on Friday night. The front will weaken and dissipate during this weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, moving through Hispaniola, and from 18N southward from 70W westward. An upper level trough extends from 22N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N72W, to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 1300 nm to the east of the upper level trough, in the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 23N. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 75W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 05N to 10N in NW Venezuela between 69W and its border with Colombia. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, are elsewhere in Colombia, from 03N northward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest concentration of clouds and possible precipitation is from 74W eastward. Fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night, as a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N50W, to 23N60W, to 20N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the dissipating front. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 31N64W, through NE and northern Florida, toward SE Louisiana. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the dissipating stationary front. A surface trough curves away, from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 29N25W, to 29N22W, to 23N24W, to 21N32W, and to 22N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the rest of the surface trough. A stationary front to the NE of Puerto Rico will dissipate through Thursday. A cold front will move into the northern waters on Saturday, then weaken, and shift to the east of the forecast area on Sunday. $$ mt/dm