000 AXNT20 KNHC 281815 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021 Corrected Gulf of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W and continues southward to 03N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 11W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected A surface ridge extends westward from the western Atlantic across northern Florida into the north-central Gulf waters. This ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf, as noted in recent scatterometer data. A large area of haze and some smoke continues in the SW and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near coastal waters of the SW gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced to 6 nm or less due to the smoke. For the forecast, fresh southeast winds and building over the western Gulf will continue through tonight as low pressure deepens over southwestern Texas. Its associated cold front will move to just offshore the Texas coast Thu evening, and slowly move across the NW Gulf through Fri. It will reach from west- central Florida to the central Gulf and to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then become stationary. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front through Sun, except the portion over the western Gulf will weaken and dissipate by late Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds quickly surge southward behind the front W of 96W and S of 25N Fri and Fri night. The smoke in the SW Gulf are expected to continue through at least the end of the week, while hazy conditions will remain over the west- central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure N of the area near 32N69W is supporting areas of fresh winds in the Windward Channel, the Gulf of Honduras, and near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the basin. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 4 ft except 5-6 ft in the areas of higher winds noted above. An area of active convection prevails over northern Colombia and Venezuela, with a few showers also noted near the ABC Islands and southern Windward Islands. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N69W. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 20N65W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the front. Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds immediately west of the front, and moderate to fresh easterly winds further east of the front and north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. To the east, a surface trough, the remnant of an old frontal boundary, stretches from 30N24W to 22N40W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the west Atlantic will change little through the period. Southerly winds will begin to increase over the northwest waters late Thu in advance of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to move over those waters late Fri into Sat, and across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Sun night as it weakens. High pressure will build in over the area in the wake of this front. $$ ERA/JA