000 AXNT20 KNHC 280003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil at 03N51W. Large clusters of numerous strong convection are over the interior of Africa extending to just along the coast from 04N to 06N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is well south of the trough and Africa from the Equator to 02N between 05W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward to across the north-central Gulf waters. The associated gradient is maintaining generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf. Over the far western Gulf, moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds are occurring mainly due to strengthening low pressure that is over western Texas. Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft across the Gulf, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft in the far western Gulf. Broken to scattered low clouds along with broken to overcast are over the far western Gulf to along the Texas coast north Corpus Christi. Additionally, some haze and smoke is observed in the SW and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico. Visibility is presently reduced to 6 nm or less in the SW Gulf. For the forecast: The high pressure ridge will gradually shift eastward through Thu while weakening in response to a cold front that will be moving across central Texas. The moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds over the far western Gulf will increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed and Wed night along with building seas. These winds are expected to diminish Thu and seas will slowly subside through Fri. Gale conditions are possible on Fri behind the front over the far SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination between Atlantic high pressure of 1024 mb centered west of Bermuda near 33N73W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela is resulting in a small area of fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia and mainly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, northeast to east winds are lighter, gentle to moderate in speeds except for fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the Caribbean, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft associated with the small area of fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia. No significant deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this evening, which is typical for the month of April. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident over the waters offshore the west coast of Puerto Rico and over the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some locations of the interior of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers moving westward are seen over the northeastern Caribbean waters as well as the waters surrounding the Leeward Islands and near the southern Windward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some areas of Colombia and Venezuela. For the forecast: The fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia will diminish to fresh speeds Wed and to moderate speeds Thu and change little through Fri night. The fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras will become fresh to strong east to southeast winds Wed night and continue through Fri, then diminish to fresh speeds through Fri night as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage will continue through early Thu. Fresh to strong east winds will develop south of the Dominican Republic late tonight and continue through early Thu before diminish to fresh speeds as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: A cold front extends from near 32N56W to 27N63W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N72W. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen to the east and southeast of the front from 22N to 30N between 52W and 65W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 30N between 52W-57W. Northeast to east fresh winds are northwest of the front, while southeast of the front winds are gentle or weaker in speeds. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly less southeast of the front. High pressure is over the waters west and northwest of the front. For the forecast: The cold front will continue moving eastward Thu while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the waters north of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night. East of 65W: A dissipating cold front extends from near 32N30W to 26N35W, where it transitions to a trough to 26N43W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible scattered showers are present east of the front from 25N to 32N between 25W-29W. Scattered to broken low clouds with possible isolated showers are elsewhere north of 24N and east of front to 24W. The pressure gradient between relatively weak high pressure over this areas and the ITCZ is allowing for gentle to moderate fresh northeast to east trade winds across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas is anticipated during the next few days. $$ Aguirre