000 AXNT20 KNHC 272343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil at 03N51W. Large clusters of numerous strong convection are over the interior of Africa extending to just along the coast from 04N to 06N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is well south of the trough and Africa from the Equator to 02N between 05W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward to across the north-central Gulf waters. The associated gradient is maintaining generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf. Over the far western Gulf, moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds are occurring mainly due to strengthening low pressure that is over western Texas. Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft across the Gulf, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft in the far western Gulf. Broken to scattered low clouds along with broken to overcast are over the far western Gulf to along the Texas coast north Corpus Christi. Additionally, some haze and smoke is observed in the SW and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico. Visibility is presently reduced to 6 nm or less in the SW Gulf. For the forecast: The high pressure ridge will gradually shift eastward through Thu while weakening in response to a cold front that will be moving across central Texas. The moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds over the far western Gulf will increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed and Wed night along with building seas. These winds are expected to diminish Thu and seas will slowly subside through Fri. Gale conditions are possible on Fri behind the front over the far SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination between Atlantic high pressure of 1024 mb centered west of Bermuda near 33N73W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela is resulting in a small area of fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia and mainly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, northeast to east winds are lighter, gentle to moderate in speeds except for fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the Caribbean, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft associated with the small area of fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia. No significant deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this evening, which is typical for the month of April. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident over the waters offhsore the west coast of Puerto Rico and over the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some locations of the interior of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers moving westward are seen over the northeastern Caribbean waters as well as the waters surrounding the Leeward Islands and near the southern Windward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some areas of Colombia and Venezuela. For the forecast: The fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia will diminish to fresh speeds Wed and to moderate speeds Thu and change little through Fri night. The fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras will become fresh to strong east to southeast winds Wed night and continue through Fri, then diminish to fresh speeds through Fri night as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage will continue through early Thu. Fresh to strong east winds will develop south of the Dominican Republic late tonight and continue through early Thu before diminish to fresh speeds as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N57W to 27N65W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N to 32N between 55W and 62W ahead of the front. Winds northwest of the front are NE to E moderate to fresh, while southeast of the front winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly less southeast of the front. The cold will shift eastward while weakening today. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night. East of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N31W, where it transitions to a trough to 25N44W. Scattered showers are present within 120 NM east of the front. A moderate north-south pressure gradient is supporting gentle to fresh NE to E trades across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas are anticipated for the next few days. $$ Aguirre