000 AXNT20 KNHC 271013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N35W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-01.5N between 12W-15W. Similar convection is observed from 04N-06N between 21W-33W, and from 04N-06N between 48W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas are generally 3-4 ft over the western half of the Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the basin. Buoys located over the NW and N-central Gulf are reporting fog. No significant precipitation is observed across the Gulf region. Smoke from ongoing agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of the western Gulf, mainly south of 27N and west of 90W. It is limiting visibility in some areas. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and building seas to 8-9 ft are expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent satellite derived wind data depict moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with an area of fresh to strong NE-E winds near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, with light and variable winds over the NW Caribbean, with the exception of fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 3-5 ft across the remainder of the basin, except 1-3 ft N of 19N between 76W-87W. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of moisture are currently more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N and E of 75W affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as Hispaniola. Increasing moisture over the NE Caribbean will support some shower activity over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico Wed and Thu. This could be associated with a mid to upper level trough located just W of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N59W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated with the front E of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front forecast to shift eastward and weaken today. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters W of 60W through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night. E of 60W: A frontal trough is analyzed from 31N32W to 26N40W to 26N47W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds with isolated showers is related to the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a surface high pressure ridge. Gentle winds are present over the eastern and central Atlantic generally from 20N to 30N. A tighter pressure gradient farther south between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh trade winds from 06N-20N between 35W-60W, and also along the W coast of Africa and regional waters from 11N-21N. Northerly swell generated by a gale center located W of the Azores will briefly reach the forecast waters N of 30N between 35W and 40W tonight, building seas to 7-8 ft. The northerly swell that had been occurring east of 30W during the last couple of days is now in a subsiding trend. $$ GR