000 AXNT20 KNHC 262314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection that is well removed from the trough is noted from the equator north to 04N and between 08W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21Z, a dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Keys northwestward to 26N90W. No significant precipitation is observed over the basin due to subsidence and associated sinking air from a mid-level ridge over the area. Latest ASCAT data shows rather gentle east-southeast winds south of the front and east of 88W, with moderate east winds north of the front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate east to southeast winds continue across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast of southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west- central Gulf, with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from ongoing agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W, limiting visibility in some areas per latest nearby surface observations. For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters late on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over Veracruz adjacent waters and the Bay of Campeche on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin inducing subsidence and associated dry sinking air. As a result, no significant precipitation is seen over the basin. ASCAT data received this afternoon shows fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, the ASCAT data indicates moderate trade winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle southeast winds are present over the northwest section of the basin. Seas are in the range of 7-9 ft offshore Colombia per latest altimeter data pass from this afternoon, while 3-5 ft seas are over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Lower seas in the range of 1-3 ft are in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean to near the coast of Colombia will continue through and are expected again Tue night. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic Tue night through early Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W of 60W: As of 21Z, a cold front extends from east of Bermuda near 32N63W southwestward to 27N70W and to the Straits of Florida, where it begins to dissipate. GOES-16 imagery shows large areas of rain, with embedded numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms east of the front to a line from 32N57W to 27N62W and to 25N66W. Fresh to north to northeast winds are behind the front, north of 28N east of 79W, while fresh south to southwest winds are east of the front north of 30N east to about 58W. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind speeds are observed south of 24N and west of 70W. The front is forecast to reach from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas tonight while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri evening. E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the discussion area near 32N34W and continues southwestward to near 27N41W, where it begins to dissipate to near 27N45W. Possible isolated showers are within south of the front between 39W-45W. The latest synoptic analysis depicts the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic under the influence of a surface high pressure ridge. Gentle winds are present over the eastern and central Atlantic generally from 20N to 30N. A tighter gradient farther south between the high pressure ridge and the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh trade winds from 04N-18N between 35W-50W, and also well northwest of the ITCZ over the waters from 13N to 18N between 56W-61W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 4-7 ft. The northerly swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now subsiding allowing for seas there to be in a subsiding trend. $$ Aguirre