000
AXNT20 KNHC 261723
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 
02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
seen from 03S-04N between 05W-12W, and from 03S-05N between 
21W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N 
between 37W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys west to 25N85W. A 
stationary front continues west to 25N91W. No significant 
precipitation is observed over the basin due to subsidence from 
a mid-level ridge. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle E-SE winds 
south of the front and east of 88W, with moderate E winds north 
of the front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail 
across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast 
of southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf, 
with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural and forest 
fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of 
the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W, 
limiting visibility in some areas.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the SE Gulf 
early this afternoon while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong 
SE winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through 
Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the 
Gulf waters late on Thu. Gale conditions are possible over the 
SW Gulf behind the front on Fri. Currently, the forecast calls 
for NW to N winds of 30 to 35 kt and seas in the 7 to 10 ft 
range.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin, producing 
subsidence. As a result, there is no significant precipitation 
seen over the Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass continues to show 
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean 
near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are 
noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle SE winds cover the NW part of the 
basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are offshore Colombia, while 3-5 ft seas 
prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean and in 
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3 ft cover the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in 
the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight 
and again Tue night. Then, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast 
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front 
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican 
Republic Tue night through Thu night as high pressure builds 
over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N71W to the 
northern tip of Andros Island Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A 
band of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is within 150 nm 
southeast of the front, mainly north of 24N and east of 76W. A 
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N to NE winds behind the front, 
north of 28N east of 79W. Fresh S to SW winds are noted ahead of 
the front and N of 30N to about 58W. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 
28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind speeds are observed 
south of 24N and west of 70W. The front will reach from 31N60W 
to the central Bahamas tonight while weakening. High pressure in 
the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through 
Fri. The next cold front will move off NE Florida by Fri evening.

E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the forecast waters near 
32N36W and continues SW to near 27N43W, then continues as 
stationary to 27N46W. Isolated showers are along and within 45 
nm ahead of the cold front. The remainder of the subtropical 
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface high pressure 
ridge. Gentle winds are from 20N-30N over the eastern and 
central Atlantic. Farther south, ASCAT shows fresh trades from 
05N-18N between 35W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. The northerly 
swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now subsiding, with 
seas currently 6-8 ft over the far eastern Atlantic.

$$
Hagen