000
AXNT20 KNHC 261013
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and continues SW to 
05N16W to 02N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to the coast of 
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen from 00N-03N between 05W-10W, and from 00N-04N between 
24W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida southwest to 
the west central Gulf of Mexico near 24N92W. Mainly moderate
NE to E winds are noted per recent scatterometer data behind the 
front to about 27N while mainly light E winds prevail S of the 
front. Winds increase some toward the Yucatan Peninsula, likely 
associated with the trough that sometimes develops near the NW of 
the Yucatan Peninsula and drifts westward across the SW Gulf. In 
fact, winds there suggest the presence of a trough. Seas area 3-4
ft in the wake of the front, and 2-3 ft south of the front. No 
significant precipitation is observed over basin. Smoke from 
agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is 
spreading across the southwest Gulf along and to the south of the 
cold front, limiting visibility in areas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across 
the SE Gulf this morning while gradually weakening. Fresh to 
strong SE winds and building seas are expected across the western
Gulf Tue night through Thu morning ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to enter the Gulf waters late on Thu. Looking ahead, gale
conditions are possible over the SW Gulf behind the front on Fri.
Currently, the forecast calls for NW to N winds of 30 to 35 kt 
and seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depict fresh to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and mainly
fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, 
with gentle to moderate SE winds over the NW part of the basin.  
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to 
move across the area producing isolated to scattered passing 
showers. These patches of moisture are currently more concentrated
over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N and E of 75W affecting the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands as well
as Hispaniola.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in 
the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight, 
and again Tue night, then mainly moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast 
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front 
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also 
expected in the Windward Passage and south of Dominican Republic 
Tue night to Thu night as high pressure builds over the western 
Atlantic. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W: A cold front extends from 31N70W across the NW Bahamas 
into south Florida. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead 
of the front just E of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW winds
are noted ahead of the front and N of 30N to about 61W. Mainly
moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front with seas to 8 ft. 
The front will reach from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits
of Florida this morning, and from 31N60W to the central Bahamas 
tonight while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front 
will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold 
front will move off NE Florida by Fri evening. 

E of 65W: A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N38W and
continues SW to near 26N47W. The remainder of the Atlantic is 
under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure located near 
27N38W. Farther east, a low pressure area persists between 
Portugal and the Azores supporting fresh to strong winds near the 
Madeira Islands and seas in the 8-11 ft range. Mainly moderate NW
winds are over the Canary Islands and regional waters with seas 
of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted
south of 20N with seas of 6-7 ft. 

$$
GR