000 AXNT20 KNHC 260555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 04N16W, to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W, to the Equator along 30W, and continuing along the Equator at 38W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 32N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 24N92W. A surface trough continues from 24N92W, to 22N96W. High level clouds are moving from Texas and Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N northward from 88W westward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Smoke from agricultural fires and forest fires, in Mexico and in Guatemala, has been spreading across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and reaching into the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, along and to the south of the cold front, limiting visibility in some areas. The current cold front, that is extending from near Ft. Myers in Florida southwestward to 24N92W, will move across the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight, while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected across the western Gulf of Mexico, from Tuesday night through Thursday morning, in advance of the next cold front that is forecast to come off the coast of Texas late on Thursday. Gale conditions are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico, behind the front, on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. anticyclonic circulation center is in southern coastal Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the SE Caribbean Sea islands, toward the eastern half of Venezuela. Upper level NW-to-W wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center that is just off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 75W in Colombia, beyond 85W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 02N to 05N between 73W and 75W, and from 05N to 07N between 74W and 78W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in Colombia. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again on Monday night, then mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Friday. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from Wednesday night through Friday, as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the Windward Passage and south of Dominican Republic, from Tuesday night to Thursday night, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The first cold front passes through 32N72W, to Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and eventually into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 31N to 34N within 360 nm to the east of the cold front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east of the cold front from to 26N in the NW Bahamas to 31N. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 34N52W. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the 32N-to-28N47W cold front, westward and northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 29N58W, to 22N70W. The second cold front passes through 32N40W to 28N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward within 800 nm to the east of the cold front. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N37W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N northward, from 80W eastward, away from the 32N72W-to-Lake Okeechobee Florida cold front, and away from the 32N40W-to-28N47W cold front. A cold front extends from 31N73W to near Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are ahead of the front N of 29N to 65W, while mainly moderate NW to N winds follow the front. This system will reach from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Monday morning, and from 31N60W to the central Bahamas by Monday night, while weakening. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front. $$ MT/GR