000 AXNT20 KNHC 251012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W then continues SW to 03N20W to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 13W-25W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted over parts of Liberia and Ivory Coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure centered over South Carolina/Georgia border to the Florida Panhandle, and across the northern Gulf into southern Texas. Fresh northerly winds and seas less than 8 ft are noted in the wake of the front. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front over the NE Gulf and northern Florida. The front will push eastward across the Gulf waters through this evening while gradually weakening. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh southerly winds over the NE Gulf east of the front. Light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere ahead of the front with the exception of moderate NE winds near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in southern Mexico are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected across the western Gulf Wed and Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas late Thu or Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data depict fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate SE winds south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are currently affecting Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as Hispaniola. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning, and could return Thu night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the lee of the Greater Antilles, including the Windward Passage by midweek as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb high pressure located near 32N58W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an area of low pressure located over South Carolina/Georgia border. The attendant cold front will move east of northern Florida this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are on increase over the waters N of 29N and W of 74W to NE Florida. The cold front is forecast to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening, from 28N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Mon evening, and from 26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening while weakening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 27N west of 65W while mainly moderate E-SE winds are observed S of 27N and W of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of the Bahamas. Another 1022 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N38W. A surface trough is analyze between the two high pressure areas and runs from 31N48W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure area between Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds just north of the forecast waters, with seas of 10-16 ft. Seas of 8-13 ft dominate most of the region from 20N- 31N and E of 30W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N. $$ GR