973 AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 08N13W, to 05N16W, to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W, to 01N30W, to the Equator along 36W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 24W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 43W and 55W. Scattered moderate to strong in small clusters is from 02N southward between 02W and 05W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, from the Atlantic Ocean, to the SW corner of Louisiana. A frontal boundary is inland, from southern Mississippi, to a Texas Panhandle low pressure center. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, has been apparent in satellite imagery, affecting much of the southwest and the west central Gulf of Mexico. Hazy sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible in most of the western Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. These winds will be present in advance of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday evening. The front will move to the east of the basin on Sunday night. Hazy sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible in most of the western Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the SE Caribbean Sea islands, toward the eastern half of Venezuela. The GFS model for 500 mb shows a Windward Passage anticyclonic circulation center, and broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 700 mb shows: broad anticyclonic wind flow in the northwestern half of the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward from 66W westward. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in Colombia, to the southeast of the monsoon trough. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, will diminish on Sunday, as high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N60W, to 26N67W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate are within 500 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from 23N northward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N73W. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front westward and northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to NE Florida, and toward the north central Gulf of Mexico. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N10W, to just to the east of the Canary Islands, to 24N20W and to 20N22W. A surface trough continues from 20N22W, to 21N35W, to 23N42W, and to 28N48W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front and the surface trough. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north of the cold front/surface trough. A cold front will move to the east of northern Florida on Sunday, then weaken as it moves to the NE of the Bahamas through Monday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the front on Saturday and Saturday night. Scattered rainshowers and isolated strong thunderstorms are possible to the east of the front. $$ mt/DM