000 AXNT20 KNHC 232202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the 02N-06N between 20W-25W, and from 02N-05N between 30W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh SE over the central and western Gulf of Mexico between high pressure off the Carolinas and a trough over northeast Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is noted on latest satellite imagery affecting much of the southwest and west central Gulf. For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeasterly winds will prevail across the Gulf this afternoon through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the northern Gulf coast this afternoon through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Sat evening and continue progressing eastward through Sun. The front will exit the basin by Sun night. In the Bay of Campeche, smoke from Central America could lower visibilities Fri night into Sat morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge extends across the northern Caribbean Sea, except for the following a sharp upper trough through Barbados. This pattern is keeping fairly dry conditions across the basin. Fresh to strong trade winds are active off Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere over the south-central and southeast Caribbean. Observations from the Bay Islands show fresh to strong E winds are noted north of Honduras. Moderate trade winds elsewhere. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to 10 ft seas off Colombia. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Colombia and Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sun as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Sun into early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected to return to the Gulf of Honduras by midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1023 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and the Carolinas near 32N72W. A cold front reaches from near 32N59W to 28N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm east of the front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted west of the front. Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N39W, with a cold front reaching from off Portugal through the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NW winds along with 8 to 15 ft seas primarily in NW swell are evident north of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of northern Florida on Sun morning, then weaken and move NE of the Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the front Sat and Sat night, then shift eastward over the northern waters through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds can be expected behind the front. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front. $$ Christensen