000 AXNT20 KNHC 231024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N26W to the Equator along 29W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 03N to 07N between the coast of Africa and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the entire Gulf of Mexico from southern Florida to 25N92W to southern Texas. Precipitation: Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. The stationary front will lift slowly northward and dissipate through Saturday. SE winds will increase tonight across most of the Gulf ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf by Saturday afternoon, then move across the rest of the basin through Sunday evening. Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will return to the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, into eastern Venezuela. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad anticyclonic wind flow over the northwestern half of the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow, associated with an inverted trough, covers the southeastern half of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends across northern Colombia and eastern Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated showers are within 240 nm to the southeast of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish this weekend, as central Atlantic Ocean high pressure shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 32N61W to 29N73W to just south of Lake Okeechobee in Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N67W to 25N76W near the Bahamas. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds are to the north of a line from 32N50W to 25N60W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong precipitation is within 180 nm to the southeast of the surface trough. A cold front passes across the Canary Islands, to 26N20W, 24N30W, 25N40W, to 30N52W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The stationary front across the SW North Atlantic will dissipate west of 70W this evening. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early Sunday morning, then weaken and move NE of the Bahamas through Monday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the front Saturday and Saturday night, then shift eastward over the northern waters through Sunday night. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front. $$ Mundell