157 AXNT20 KNHC 210952 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W and continues SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm both sides of these boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche. An earlier low pressure associated with it in the southwest Gulf has dissipated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located along and southeast of this front. A cold front has moved off the Texas coast overnight, bringing fresh to strong NW winds behind it. Between the two fronts, moderate mainly N winds are occurring, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the southeast of the stationary front. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. The stationary front will transition into a cold front as the secondary cold front moves through the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are expected offshore Texas behind this secondary front. The low is forecast to lose its identity along the front later this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be focused along and near the front today. Some of this activity may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf Fri, shift to the central Gulf early Sat and diminish by late Sat as the cold front moves across the NW Gulf and central Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted with seas of 4-7 ft. Overall, dry conditions prevail, except for continued convection along the Mexican coast in association with a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will diminish slightly late in the week as high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... To the W of 65W, a stationary front stretches from just S of Bermuda to near Vero Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of either side of this boundary, with isolated strong convection south of Bermuda around 30N. To the east of the front and N of 28N, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring. Elsewhere to the south and east, moderate southerly winds are occurring. To the NW of the boundary, winds are light to gentle. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. The stationary front will transition back to a cold front later today, and merge with a secondary front emerging off the SE U.S. coast tonight. N of 28N, Some fresh to strong SW are possible ahead of the first front, with some strong NW possible behind the second front. The high pressure will shift eastward through Sat night as a stronger cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. This front is expected to move across the NW and north- central waters Sun and Sun night preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible thunderstorms. E of 65W, high pressure of 1024 mb centered near 27N38W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trades are noted from 10N-20N between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. The high pressure will weaken by late Wed, and will be replaced by another high pressure system located over the central Atlantic by Wed night. $$ KONARIK