000 AXNT20 KNHC 210555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W and continues SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection to strong is along the coast of Sierra Leone, from 03S-06N between 16W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to a 1010 mb low pressure near 20N94W and continues south to the coast near 18N94W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is just S of the front over the SE Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula extending north to the Florida Keys. The stationary front will transition back to a cold front reaching the far southeastern Gulf late Wed. The low is forecast to lose its identity along the front by early Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be focused along and near the front tonight into Wed morning. Some of this activity may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered over 28N93W ahead of the next cold front near the Texas coast. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf Fri, shift to the central Gulf early Sat and diminish by late Sat as the cold front moves across the NW Gulf and central Gulf waters. The front will become stationary from the east-central Gulf to the west-central Gulf Sun and Sun night as a weak gradient sets up over the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range. This area is cloud free. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E-SE winds are noted with seas of 4-7 ft across the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the NW Caribbean. Visible satellite imagery shows narrow lines of clouds forming parallel to the E-SE winds. Convection continues to flare up over the NE Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over parts of Central America. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will diminish by late in the week as high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0300 UTC and W of 65W, a weak stationary front extends from near Bermuda to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N to 31N between 65W-73W. This front will remain stationary through Wed, before moving E as high pressure moves into the area. By late Wed, the stationary front will have lifted back to the N a s a warm front, while the cold front will have reached from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to west- central Cuba as yet another cold front moves over the NW waters. By late Thu, both fronts will be weakening NE of the Bahamas as high pressure builds in over the area. The high pressure will shift eastward through Sat night as a stronger cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. This front is expected to move across the NW and north-central waters Sun and Sun night preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible scattered showers and thunderstorms. E of 65W, high pressure of 1025 mb located near 27N38W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trades are noted per scatterometer data from 10N-20N between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure will weaken by late Wed, and will be replaced by another high pressure system located over the central Atlantic by Wed night. $$ MTorres