441 AXNT20 KNHC 200536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to the Equator along 34W, and continuing westward to the Amazon Delta near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 n mi of the boundaries between 11W and 39W and west of 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary remains stalled from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche, and then inland across portions of eastern Mexico. A trough lies over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered moderate convection over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are mainly confined to the southeastern waters including the Florida Straits and over portions of south Florida. Despite the boundary, winds are not very strong due to a fairly weak pressure gradient across the area. The front will remain nearly stationary into Wed, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far southeastern Gulf Wed night dissipating Thu. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the NW and central Gulf Fri through early on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea waters ahead of the Gulf of Mexico front/trough. Similar activity is occurring over land across portions of Central America. Otherwise, generally tranquil conditions prevail across the remainder of the area supported by surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Latest ASCAT pass shows strongest trade winds across the central Caribbean, 20-25 kt, but are moderate elsewhere. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will diminish by late in the week as high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front and a couple of frontal waves lie across the western Atlantic and are producing a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from near Bermuda across the northwestern Bahamas to southern Florida. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, outside of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, look tranquil at the moment supported by surface ridging and dry/stable air. Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail north of 04N to 26N across the tropical Atlantic. A weak cold front extending from 31N77W to inland east-central Florida will move slightly south through late tonight, then stall through through late Tue night. It will move again as a cold front Wed through Thu while weakening and stalling out near 25N Thu night through Fri night. It will lift back N as a warm front Sat and Sat night as another cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds, and with possible scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ TORRES