000 AXNT20 KNHC 190003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate isolted strong convection is from 01S to 05N between 07W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the monsoon/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extending from Crystal River, Florida to 26N90W to the western Bay of Campeche continue to support scattered showers and tstms ahead of the front, N of 24N E of 89W. Fresh to near gale force N to NW winds are behind the front S of 28N, being the strongest winds near Veracruz, Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front over the north-central and northwest basin. Southerly wind of the same speed is ahead of the front over the SE gulf. Strong to near gale force winds occurring west of this front along the E and SE Mexican coast will diminish overnight. This front will remain nearly stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far southeast Gulf from mid to late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... La Soufriere volcano on Saint Vincent remains in a continually active state, and additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time. The most recent report from the Satellite Analysis Branch indicate that volcanic ash emissions extend within 60 nm west and 30 nm southwest of the summit. Numerical models forecast little change in wind direction through the next 12 hours. Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. A middle-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula supports a surface trough inland, which is generating showers and tstms extending nearly 120 nm off the coast of Belize into the Gulf of Honduras. The sea breeze is supporting a line of showers and tstms along Central America, which extends to the coastal waters. Deep layer dry air is elsewhere as indicated by low level precipitable water and mid-level water vapor imagery, which is favoring fair weather conditions. Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, extends a ridge axis SW to the northern and eastern Caribbean and continue to support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central basin and moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade winds with seas to 7 ft are elsewhere. The ridge N of the area will shift east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean through mid week. Looking ahead, the trade winds will diminish by late week as the high pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong winds will persist off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the coast of northeast Florida through the early part of the week, as a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic through the central Bahamas. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeast U.S. coast by Thu. This front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu night, then start to stall along 25N through Fri night as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over the West Africa adjacent waters and over the central tropical waters. $$ Ramos