000 AXNT20 KNHC 180936 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 02N30W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 220 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is located from near Cedar Key, Florida, to 26N90W to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale force winds are occurring north of this boundary offshore the Mexican coast. These strong winds will prevail into tonight, and are being enhanced by weak low pressure of 1008 mb that has developed overnight near 21N93W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will also persist through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the NE Gulf to the north of the stationary front and E of 90W. A cluster of thunderstorms is also ongoing about 90 nm E of the Texas Mexico border. North of the stationary boundary, and away from the aforementioned Mexican coast, fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing. Elsewhere, mainly moderate southerly winds prevail. For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far SE Gulf Wed into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough that extends W into the eastern Pacific continues west to the coast of Colombia along 10N. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 90 nm either side of this trough. Deep layer dry air is elsewhere, favoring fair weather conditions. The pressure gradient between higher pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing for fresh to locally trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the waters between Jamaica and Cuba and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of central Honduras into tonight, between the ridge and lower pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The high will shift east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean early this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 32N65W roughly along 30N to near Saint Augustine, Florida. W of 70W along and N of this boundary, scattered moderate convection is occurring, otherwise generally dry conditions are located over the basin. To the E of 70W to around 50W, an area south of the front and S of a weak low pressure near Bermuda, fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring. Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N. Mainly fresh NE to E winds over the West Africa adjacent waters and over the central tropical waters. Otherwise, a dissipating surface trough is noted from 31N35W to 25N50W. A few showers and thunderstorms exist within 60 nm of this boundary. Seas throughout the basin are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will remain nearly in place into mid week, as high pressure dominates the SE Part of the basin. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly strong frontal boundary will move off the SE U.S. coast by Thu. $$ KONARIK