000 AXNT20 KNHC 151021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. No volcanic eruptions or ash emissions have occurred during the past 24 hours, and the NOAA Volcanic Ash Advisory Center has stopped issuing bulletins for La Soufriere. However, the volcano remains in a state of unrest and mariners are advised to exercise caution near St. Vincent. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of west Africa near 11N15W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N24W to the equator at 39W. A narrow line of scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ, and extends westward from 04N26W to 02N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located east of NE Florida extends a ridge across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, producing moderate east to southeast winds across the region. Convection has flared up across coastal sections of the north-central Gulf along a stationary front hugging the Gulf coast from southern Mississippi across Louisiana into southern Texas. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf later this morning, then stall and weaken along 27N tonight. A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds and building seas expected across the western Gulf this weekend. Gale force winds are possible near the central coast of Mexico Sat night. The front will stall from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun night and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent. A ridge dominates Cuba and the NW Caribbean, a weak pressure gradient is noted over the eastern Caribbean thanks to a pair of frontal boundaries, one north of Hispaniola, and the other NE of the Windward Islands. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds across most of the central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean near Costa Rica and Panama. Mostly fair weather and isolated showers elsewhere. The cold front NE of the Windward Islands will shift eastward and weaken today. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun night through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent. A pair of cold fronts continue to move across the west-central Atlantic waters. The primary cold front extends from 31N45W to 16N61W near Antigua and Barbuda in the Windward Islands. The second cold front reaches from 31N51W to 22N61W to just north of Hispaniola at 20N70W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted ahead of the first front, north of 20N within 180 to 300 nm east of the front. Isolated shower activity is along the secondary cold front. Both cold fronts will move eastward today while weakening. The secondary front will dissipate during the next 12-24 hours, and the primary front will become stationary on Fri and dissipate through Sat morning. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida into the northern waters by early Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next week. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over west Africa will result in fresh trade winds between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of W Africa through Fri. $$ Mundell