000 AXNT20 KNHC 131058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N22W to 02N30W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N37W and to 01N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 24W-30W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-33W. Broken to overcast low clouds are along and inland the Texas coastal plains. Patches of fog, some dense, are over the NW Gulf. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 29N86W. Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico north of about 24N and east of 92W. Broken to overcast low clouds are along and inland the Texas coastal plains. Patches of fog, some dense, are over the NW Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward through Wed in response to an approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the northern Gulf Wed night, reach from north-central Florida to southern Texas Thu and become stationary and weaken through Fri night. Mainly moderate northeast to east winds will follow in behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf late Fri night, and reach from north-central Florida to the west- central Gulf by late Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow in behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the Colombia/Panama border beyond 07N80W and into the eastern Pacific. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough over the waters of the southwestern Caribbean and over sections of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over central and eastern Honduras and over northern Nicaragua. Scattered to broken low-level moving westward with the surface to low-level easterly flow are over the rest of the sea. Isolated may be possible with these clouds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N68W to across the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, with scattered moderate convection are noted to the east of the front from 27N to 32N between 55W-60W and within 90 nm of a line from 28N60W to 26N65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere between 55W-67W and from 13N to 19N between 56W and the Leeward Islands. A surface trough is along 31W from 23N to 32N. No significant convection is occurring with this feature. A 1017 mb high pressure center is west of the trough near 23N36W, while a 1020 mb high pressure center is east of the same trough near 25N22W. High pressure is present from 15N to 30W/31W between 31W-52W and east of the trough as well. An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N between 43W-55W should be aware of the possibility for the existence of volcanic ash. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 26N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic early this evening and move east of the forecast waters early on Wed as weak high pressure builds behind it, and as another cold front approaches the far northwest waters. This second front will move across the water N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Fri night and become stationary along 28N over the western part of the area Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected ahead of this front. Weak high pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front. $$ Aguirre