000 AXNT20 KNHC 122200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is currently undergoing frequent eruptions. Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface and low level visibility may be reduced. Mariners traveling within the area 18N39W to 08N40W to 10N50W to 15N62W to 17N45W to 18N39W are urged to exercise caution, especially west of 50W where the densest ash is being observed. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N42W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 33W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from South Florida to near 25N84W. A trough extends from 25N85W to just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 26N, with light to gentle winds south of 26N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range across much of the Gulf waters, except 1-2 ft over the SW Gulf. The cold front will exit the SE Gulf tonight. A new cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed. This front will reach from north- central Florida to southern Texas Thu and become stationary through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent. A ridge extends from 1015 mb high pressure near 25N58W SW across the northern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will continue over the far NW Caribbean through the period, pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras. Pulses of strong NE to E winds are forecast at night along Colombia coastal waters through Thu. Northerly winds behind a cold front that will move over the Bahamas will funnel across the Windward Passage Tue night through Wed night supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds. Fresh NE winds are also expected over southern Cuba adjacent waters. Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh east winds will change little through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent. A cold front extends from 32N73W to south Florida. Moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail west of the front. Low pressure of 1000 mb is centered near 33N65W, with high pressure of 1015 mb centered near 25N58W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting strong to near gale winds north of 27N between 61W and 70W, with winds reaching gale force north of 32N. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range. A ridge extends eastward from the high pressure to another area of high pressure near 27N21W. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the ridge, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range N of 25N E of 45W. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southwest winds N of 27N and E of 70W will shift eastward this evening ahead of a cold front that extends from near 32N73W to southern Florida. The front will move east of the forecast waters on Wed morning as weak high pressure builds behind it. Another cold front will approach the far northwest waters. This front will move across the water N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Fri night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected ahead of this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far NE offshores will move E of the area early on Tue. $$ AL