000 AXNT20 KNHC 102204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume spreading east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area from 12N to 16N between 49W to 62W which includes Barbados. Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without any warning. Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east-northeast of St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 03N35W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 11W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary from earlier strong thunderstorms is drapped over the NE Gulf from near Tampa, FL to 25N90W. New strong convection is developing along this boundary within 120 nm of the Florida coast. In addition, to the north of the outflow boundary, numerous moderate convection exists N of 26N and E of 87W. To the west, a cold front is stretching from the central Louisiana coast to just S of the Texas-Mexico border. Also, low pressure of 1002 mb has developed near 22N96W. Fresh N wind is occurring behind the cold front, with fresh S winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate mainly SW winds occurring elsewhere. Seas N of 25N and E of 90W are 5 to 8 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. Fresh southerly winds are forecast across the most of the basin tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are expected in the NE Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent. Fresh trades are occurring over much of the central Caribbean and in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate wind prevails. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except slightly higher where the fresh winds are occurring. Scattered thunderstorms continue off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean for the remainder of this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent. High-pressure ridging continues over most of the western and far eastern Atlantic. West of 60W, this is leading to gentle anticyclonic flow, 3 to 5 ft seas, and mainly tranquil marine conditions. However, an outflow boundary with gusty winds and moderate convection is moving off the north Florida coast this evening. Ahead of this boundary, fresh S winds have developed. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north of the area centered near 37N48W is producing a large area of strong westerly winds north of 25N between 35W-55W. Seas are 11-16ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting most of the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of this low pressure system, from 29N40W to 22N49W. Another surface trough is noted from 26N38W to 17N51W. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 120 nm on either side of this trough. Fresh southerly winds are expected in the Bahamas and east of Florida for the remainder of the weekend as a cold front approaches the western Atlantic. The front will move across Florida Mon, then extend from 30N60W to 21N75W on Tue, and move east of the forecast area on Wed. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft in the vicinity of the front. $$ KONARIK